Democrats are facing a choice as they stare down what appears to be the best political environment for the party in two decades: Do they go for bare majorities? Or do they try to rack up the kind of wins that could change American politics?

President Donald Trump’s overwhelming unpopularity, fed by voter anger at high prices, an unnecessary war in Iran and a perception of widespread government corruption, has presented Democrats with opportunities to go far beyond their initially modest goals for the 2026 midterm elections.

Victory in the House is seen as close to a lock. The Senate is, in a best-case scenario for Republicans, a toss-up. Those wins would give Democrats the ability to investigate Trump aggressively, put a kibosh on much of his agenda and block his judicial nominees.

Historic victories are seemingly within grasp. Flipping Texas would deal a grave psychic wound to the GOP. Breaking the Republican stranglehold on Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina would help the party in the next round of redistricting battles. Winning Senate seats in rural states could put the GOP on the back foot politically for the first time since Trump’s 2016 victory. Any of these could accelerate a repudiation of Trumpism and a potential splintering of the GOP.

A victory by state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in the race for Texas governor would change American politics — but Democrats may not have the cash to seriously compete in her race.

The Washington Post via Getty Images

“You have to focus on 218 and 51,” said Addisu Demissie, a leading party strategist, referring to the numbers necessary for majorities in the House and Senate. “But these opportunities only come along once in a generation. At what point do you play for a wave versus just playing for a majority?”

Operatives in both parties now believe the GOP’s massive money advantage is doing relatively little to blunt Democratic gains. More than $500 million in GOP donor money spent since Labor Day has damaged the reputations of some Democratic candidates but has done little to move polling results in Republicans’ favor.

But there is reason for caution: The Democrats’ financial resources are limited, and party operatives feel obligated to protect incumbents in tough, expensive races. The specter of poll-driven overconfidence in 2016 and 2020 looms over the party. Victories in many deep-red House seats could be quickly undone in two years’ time.

“No one wants to rain on everyone’s parade,” said one Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to frankly discuss intra-party tensions. “But people need to be strategic, and that means we probably won’t be able to pursue every opportunity that comes up.”

Another strategist working on House races across the country said many of the party’s likeliest victories were still coming in places Trump won in 2024, making it difficult to feel completely confident about November’s outcome. So far, the major Democratic super PAC focused on House races has only cut spending on three contests: Michigan’s 8th District, California’s 48th District and Nebraska’s 2nd District. Not coincidentally, former Vice President Kamala Harris won the latter two in 2024, while Trump won the Michigan seat by just a percentage point.

“It feels terrifying to leave a Pennsylvania 7th or Arizona 1st,” the strategist said, referring to two GOP-held seats strategists in both parties view as likely to flip. “Everything is a Trump district. There’s nothing we can take for granted.”

That focus means the party may not be able to fund challengers in seats like Indiana’s 5th District or New York’s 21st District, two seats that went heavily for Trump but feature weaker Republican candidates. It’s also possible the party could cut bait on Tennessee’s 5th District, where a successful primary challenge to scandal-plagued Republican Rep. Andy Ogles dimmed the party’s hopes of an upset.

“Democrats just don’t have that kind of money,” the strategist said.

The search for additional funds is now dominating the time for many candidates in red territory. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa’s campaign for governor of Texas has seen an unusually public campaign, with Latino leaders around the country lobbying Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, to put more cash into what appears to be a toss-up race against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.

The squeaky wheel has begun getting the grease: The DGA put $1 million into the race on Wednesday, following some comparatively low-cost investments in staff and polling. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a former chair of the DGA, said the group is trying to put more cash into the race.

“There is a real appetite at the DGA to move things so we have a more immediate response,” Lujan Grisham said in an interview last week. “The DGA recognizes a quality candidate, a quality effort, and we need to do more. So let’s see what we can get materialized.”

The Latino leaders backing Hinojosa say more cash is needed, asking for another $3 million before early voting begins in the Lone Star State.

Many Democrats are keeping close eyes on potential new sources of money. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker donated $1 million to Hinojosa’s campaign, and a PAC funded by him and controlled by his allies is spending in places that could win chits for the billionaire’s likely 2028 presidential run.

Pritzker’s investments in races in New Mexico, Alabama and Arkansas may end up being large enough to allow other Democratic groups to redirect their spending toward other seats, one Democratic source suggested. Similarly, Everytown for Gun Safety, which is backed by billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has taken over about $10 million worth of reservations from House Majority PAC.

Cash is also sitting on the sidelines for both parties. MAGA Inc., the super PAC controlled by Trump allies, has hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank, and the Republican National Committee has not spent aggressively on television ads from its war chest of more than $100 million.

Democrats, meanwhile, are closely watching to see what Lower Costs Now, a super PAC linked to the Future Forward network that spent hundreds of millions backing Harris in 2024, is able to do in the final weeks before the elections. The notoriously secretive operation has spent about $9 million but is known to prefer to pour money into races late.

The Senate map has similar dynamics: Even the races Democrats feel most confident about, like North Carolina and Georgia, are in places Trump won, making it hard to abandon them and go after red seats in Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Florida. Senate Majority PAC, which is controlled by allies of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said in a memo late last month that Democrats “still urgently need additional resources to remain competitive in the final days of the campaign.”

The calculus is slightly different because of the length of a Senate term — a House member who wins a heavily Republican seat could easily lose it in 2028 before a Democratic president is sworn into office, while a senator is safely ensconced for six years, expanding Democratic opportunities and blocking GOP ambitions.

The Democratic super PAC American Bridge has spent much of the past year focused on putting reach districts in play, and announced on Tuesday plans to spend $2 million on Mississippi’s Senate race, plus an additional $1.6 million on GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. But Pat Dennis, the group’s president, said the party needs to keep its eyes on the prize.

“You can drive yourself nuts trying to think about what’s going to happen in two years,” he said. “What’s going to happen in five years? Is the Russian plague going to shake up, you know, how everybody polls? You can’t. You got to focus on this election. You’ve got to win the biggest majority you possibly can. The bigger majority you win, the more you can deliver for people on your promises, the better you’ll do next time. That’s as simple as it is.”