It’s October and there’s a whole lot of politics goin’ on. If control of the Wisconsin governor’s and attorney general’s offices, both houses of the Legislature, and both houses of Congress weren’t enough, the Madison mayor’s race is, all of a sudden, an actual race with a crowded field of credible candidates.

We’ll leave the spring elections for the future, but let’s try, as best we can, to take a dispassionate look at the November contests. Here’s my read on the chances for each party, candidate or referendum in each set of races.

Wisconsin governor. I’d give Democrat David Crowley a 55% chance of winning. Crowley should benefit from the big picture dynamics. It’s an off year election with a deeply unpopular president of the opposite party in the White House. According to the latest Marquette Law School poll, Donald Trump’s job approval rating in Wisconsin is a dismal 38%, his lowest ever. Trump says he wants people to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” Democrats and independents will do just that and vote against him in absentia. Crowley benefits from slightly higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters and from a big lead among independents, 44% to 18%. But Republican Tom Tiffany and his supporting groups are outspending Crowley almost three-to-one. Still, I don’t think that’ll be enough to overcome the tide.

Wisconsin attorney general. If Crowley wins, so should Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul, so I’d give him an equal 55% chance. This is a surprisingly low-information race, even though it’s a rematch between Kaul and his 2022 opponent, Eric Toney. Even after serving for nearly eight years, almost 60% of voters say they don’t know enough about Kaul to register an opinion about him, but that figure is even higher for Toney, as 75% of voters say they don’t know enough about him. Because voters seem to know so little about either candidate, chances are they’ll just follow their party choice at the top of the ballot. I’d be surprised if more than several thousand votes separate Crowley from Kaul or Tiffany from Toney.

Wisconsin Senate. Let’s go with a 75% chance of Democrats taking this house back. They only need two more seats to take a 17-16 majority and they’ve got a chance to claim as many as five. For me, the race to watch is the 17th Senate District west of Madison, where longtime Republican incumbent and powerful Finance Committee Co-Chair Howard Marklein is fending off a strong challenge from Democrat Jenna Jacobson. If the relatively popular Marklein goes down, we might be looking at a Democratic wave.

Wisconsin Assembly. This is a heavier lift for Democrats, so I’ll give them a 45% shot at reclaiming a majority. They need five seats and it would take a wave year to get that done, but they may ride just such a wave. I may be selling them short. We’ll see.

Wisconsin constitutional amendments. There are three and I’ll give them all a blanket 80% chance of passage. The amendments would restrict the governor’s line item veto authority, prohibit the state from closing churches even in the midst of pandemics, and prohibit state and local governments from providing preferential treatment based on race, gender, color, ethnicity or national origin. Legislative Republicans put the last two of these on the ballot as a way of getting around Gov. Tony Evers’ veto, but the line item veto question is a legitimate constitutional issue. At least a couple of these may fail in Madison, but all three should win overwhelmingly in the rest of the state.

U.S. House. All eyes should be on Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden is in a rematch with Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Cooke narrowly lost to him in 2024 and I’m going to give her a 52% chance of narrowly (or maybe even not so narrowly) beating him this time around. Van Orden is, to say the least, a weird dude and he is unabashed about tying himself to Trump. That should be enough to send him packing, but Cooke, who grew up on a family farm and waitresses part-time, seems to have the working class vibe that should go over well in this district. And here’s a surprise. The First District, in southeast Wisconsin, is now also somewhat in play. The moderate Republican incumbent Bryan Steil is now vulnerable enough for the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of challenger Mitchell Berman. If Cooke wins it almost certainly means Democrats take back the House and if Berman prevails that may signal a wave. I’ll give Democrats an 80% chance of winning a narrow House majority and a 20% chance of a more comfortable one.

U.S. Senate. Six months ago I would have said that Democratic control of the Senate was a pipe dream. But now every week brings another state into play. Democrats need to gain four seats and hang onto three. As for defense, it looks like Jon Ossoff is safe in Georgia and the Democrats are more likely than not to hold off a stiff challenge to retain a seat in New Hampshire. Abdul El Sayed is shaky in Michigan, but the last poll had him with a five point lead. Roy Cooper looks to be a lock to pick up a seat in North Carolina. Other opportunities for Democratic gains include Alaska, Ohio, Maine, Texas and now, believe it or not, even Kansas. Again, a wave could carry them over the threshold, but I’m more inclined to think that local politics (most of the targeted states went for Trump) will overwhelm the national trends. I’ll give the Democrats a 48% chance of taking back the Senate.

Overall, the big trends all run in the Democrats’ favor while the candidate specific races somewhat favor Republicans. The macro trends include an off-year election with a deeply unpopular Republican president, a continued high cost of living including very high gas and diesel prices, independents sloshing hard against those in power, and a higher level of enthusiasm among Democratic voters. The candidate specific environment requires Democrats to win a disproportionate number of seats in districts won by Trump just two years ago amid a substantial fundraising advantage for Republicans.

In the end, I don’t think money will matter as much as it sometimes does. I’m going to give the big trends a 75% chance of outweighing the district specific advantages. I think Nov. 3 should be a good night for Democrats.

Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos.