The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman explained why she believes the GOP’s 2028 presidential nomination is currently Vice President JD Vance’s to lose.

Haberman pushed back on CNN anchor Kasie Hunt’s suggestion that there may be a “shadow campaign” for the nomination between Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has recently been handed several high-profile assignments, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

“I don’t actually think that Rubio is doing much to try to engage in a shadow campaign,” said Haberman. “I think whether the perception of that is there is a different issue. Clearly, there are a lot of people who would like to see Marco Rubio run. I don’t know that he is among them and I certainly don’t know that his family is among them.”

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Haberman said it is still “most likely” Vance’s race to lose because Trump remains “still overwhelmingly popular among Republicans,” even if his support is “ticking down” in his own party.

“Vance is still an incredibly well-known figure,” Haberman added. “He is much more popular with the base than almost anyone else I can think of who would be running right now” and would likely attract significant donor money too, she said.

On whether the prospect of Vance following in Trump’s footsteps to become the heir to his MAGA kingdom could change, Haberman acknowledged “his fate is tied to President Trump, there’s no question about that.”

“What is going to happen in the next couple of years will impact whether JD Vance becomes president in a theoretical 2028 general election,” she said. “At the moment, he still appears to be the favorite” for the nomination.