The former chair of the state Democratic Party predicts a Democratic “wave” in the Nov. 3 elections, based on the turnout in the party primary for governor won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

“It was crystal clear out of this primary that there’s a huge level of participation, of interest, enthusiasm from Democrats," Ben Wikler, Democratic Party chair from 2019 until 2025, said in a Wisconsin Public Radio interview. “Way more Democrats voted than Republicans in the primary.

“The turnout among Democrats shot up compared to 2018, which was the year Gov. Tony Evers won, and the Republican participation fell from 2018,” he added. So this looks like a Democratic wave year from all the signals we can tell."

Wikler, a potential U.S. Senate candidate in 2028, just completed a national tour promoting his new book, This is The Plan, advising Democrats nationally to learn from the neighbor-to-neighbor successful organizing drives of Wisconsin Democrats as they prepare for Nov. 3 midterm elections and the presidential campaign in two years.

In Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 primary, Crowley got an unofficial total of more than 316,000 votes, narrowly defeating — by 0.5% — the unofficial 311,000 vote total of state Rep. Francesca Hong, of Madison. Democrats statewide cast more than 793,000 votes in the gubernatorial primary.

Wikler’s prediction of a Democratic “wave” in November is based on the 47% increase in Democratic votes for governor between the last contested primary in 2018, when more than 538,636 votes were cast, and the Aug. 11 total.

More than half of the 793,000 votes in the Democratic primary were cast in just five counties, according to unofficial totals: Dane, 151,993 votes; Milwaukee, 151,288; Waukesha, 50,713; Brown, 29,976, and Rock, 19,533.

The number of Democratic primary votes between 2018 and this year soared by 81% in Waukesha County and 78% in Brown County.

Waukesha County is a Republican stronghold: 59% of its voters favored President Donald Trump in 2024, and 60% of them backed the Republican candidate for governor, Tim Michels, in 2022.

Waukesha County’s 81% jump in Democratic primary voters between 2018 and this year raises this question: Did a significant number of Waukesha County Republicans vote for Hong on Aug. 11, thinking she would be the weakest candidate against the Republican nominee for governor, Congressman Tom Tiffany?

One veteran player in Wisconsin politics, Brandon Scholz, former executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin and now a political independent, dismisses that “crossover” theory.

“I love when this comes up at election time — the much-maligned ‘crossover’ vote,” Scholz says in an email.

“People think it is a novel idea but have no clue how hard it is to generate. Just think how hard it is to get voters to vote for the candidates they like, let alone educating them and convincing them to go to the polls and do mischief and crossover,” Scholz adds.

“And, for those who do go and vote in a crossover, there just aren’t enough to make a difference…So, no, don’t blame GOPers for the Hong loss and Crowley win.”

Instead, Crowley won because Democrats who had been undecided, which the last Marquette University poll estimated to be 34% of Democratic primary voters, went for him, Scholz says.

“Late-breaking undecideds are part of Wisconsin’s election day fabric,” Scholz says. “And Wikler knows that.”

Tiffany having “no opposition” in the Aug. 11 primary explains the 41% drop since the 2022 GOP primary, when Michels and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch competed for the nomination, Scholz adds. (Tiffany did face an opponent on the ballot, Andy Manske, a medical service technician.) 

Scholz also questions what Wikler sees as “enthusiasm” by Democrats anxious to vote on Nov. 3. “Quite honestly, ‘enthusiasm’ was not a word I used in describing the Democratic [primary]...I thought it was sleepier than eight years ago.”

A July Marquette University Law School poll found that Democrats were more excited about voting in November than Republicans.

“Democrats report greater enthusiasm about the November elections than do Republicans and independents,” said Marquette pollster Charles Franklin. “This enthusiasm also boosts the likelihood of voting and is giving Democrats an edge.”

But, when poll respondents were asked about the certainty of voting, Franklin added, “The enthusiasm gap has varied…and may shift more as general elections campaigns come to dominate advertising and news in the fall.”

Republican Party of Wisconsin officials did not respond to a request for comment about Wikler’s prediction.

Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at [email protected].