by Jacob G. Hornberger

April 9, 2026

Who won the Iran War, at least so far? The answer turns on what metrics for success one uses.

If one uses military battles, bombings, death, and destruction, there is no question but that the United States won the war.

(1) U.S. and Israeli forces killed more than 1,900 Iranian civilians and an unknown number of Iranian troops. Iran killed only 13 U.S. soldiers and no American civilians.

(2) During the course of the war, U.S. and Israeli forces assassinated many of the top Iranian governmental officials. Iran failed to assassinate any U.S. officials or Israeli officials.

(3) U.S. and Israeli forces bombed over 13,000 targets in Iran. While Iran did some damage to some U.S. imperial bases in the Middle East, Iran did not bomb a single target inside the United States.

(4) U.S. and Israeli forces decimated Iran’s navy and air force and virtually all of its military installations. Iran succeeded in shooting down only two American war planes and, even then, the pilots survived and avoided capture. Iran did no damage to America’s navy or to any military base within the United States.

(6) U.S. and Israeli forces bombed Iranian universities, pharmaceuticals, government buildings, homes, bridges, and other infrastructure in Iran. Iran failed to bomb any such facilities within the United States.

Given these metrics, who won the war? There is no question about it: The United States clearly won the war.

Yet, consider the following: The U.S. had the following war aims:  (1) an unconditional surrender of the Iranian regime; (2) regime change in which pro-U.S. Iranian dissidents would take control of the Iranian government; and (3) the destruction of Iran’s nuclear materials.

Given such, consider the following metrics:

(1) The Iranian regime is still standing, albeit with new leaders who took command after U.S. and Israeli forces assassinated their predecessors.

(2) Despite massive military defeats, the Iranian regime refused to surrender and shows no inclination of doing so in the future.

(3) Iran now wields control over the Strait of Hormuz and might well continue to maintain such control for the indefinite future.

(4) Iran continues to maintain control over its nuclear materials.

Using these three metrics, there is no question but that Iran won the war.

Relying on their military metrics, President Trump and the U.S. national-security establishment continue to steadfastly maintain that they, not Iran, won the war:

President Trump: “We’ve won. It’s over.”

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth: “A decisive military victory.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine: “A decisive military victory.”

Their statements bring to mind an exchange in 1975, shortly after the end of the Vietnam War. The exchange was between U.S. Army Colonel Harry G. Summers, Jr., a U.S. corps operations commander in the Vietnam War, and a North Vietnamese Colonel named Nguyễn Huy An:

Summers: “You know you never defeated us on the battlefield.”

Nguyễn Huy An: “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”

Unlike Vietnamese and Iranian officials, it is clear that Trump, Hegseth, and the U.S. national-security establishment have yet to learn a critically important lesson about war: that there is big difference between tactical military victories and strategic success.