On 14 May 2026, Chairman Xi Jinping sat across from President Donald Trump in Beijing and mentioned the Thucydides Trap.

Why would Xi do this? Why would the head of state of a supposedly rising China reach for an academic statement to explain his superior position to an American president? The answer is that Xi reached for Allison because his thesis serves Beijing’s purposes. 

The “Thucydides Trap,” is a phrase that was invented by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in 2015 and was subsequently elevated to the status of a commandment in international relations.

Simplified, Alison’s thesis is: In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years in which a rising power threatened displace an established power, a war resulted. The implication of Xi’s comment is that the United States and China are now caught in that trap, and the consequence is that Washington must learn to manage Beijing’s rise rather than resist it.

The Facts Say Otherwise

The International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 projections place U.S. GDP at $32.4 trillion against China’s $20.65 trillion, a U.S. lead of $11.2 trillion. As recently as 2021, Chinese GDP had reached approximately 75% of US output. That ratio has now fallen back to 65% and is widening in America’s favor.

The Wall Street Journal reported in December 2025 that China’s share of global GDP peaked in 2021 and has been shrinking since.

The energy picture is even more decisive. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in May 2026 that total U.S. electrical energy production reached a record 107 quadrillion BTU in 2025, the fourth consecutive annual record.

American crude oil production hit 13.6 million barrels per day, marketed natural gas reached 118.5 billion cubic feet per day, and total oil and liquid fuels production stands at roughly 24 million barrels per day, more than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined.

China imports more than 70% of its crude oil, with roughly 38% of all Chinese oil imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a vulnerability the Heritage Foundation identified as catastrophic in any serious Pacific conflict.

China imports 84% of its soybeans and 31% of its edible oils. Its overall food self-sufficiency has fallen below the 80% threshold that researchers use to classify a nation as food deficient.

The technology layer has NVIDIA, headquartered in Santa Clara, California as holding 85% of the global AI chip market and 92% of the GPU market. Its data center revenue reached $193.7 billion in fiscal 2025, up 68% year over year, and $215.9 billion in fiscal 2026.

The most advanced AI chips on the planet are now manufactured in Arizona and Apple has committed $600 billion to U.S. manufacturing over four years, its largest commitment in company history.

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a multi-year high of 52.7 in March 2026, while Chinese investment plunged by roughly 8% in April 2026, year over year, per Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics estimates. Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal’s chief China correspondent, stated in January 2026 that China’s investment-led growth model “is broken.”

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The “Chinese Century” Fable

The demographic picture, more than any other metric, will describe the end of the “Chinese Century” fable.

Chinese official reports never report economic negative data, but nevertheless China’s National Bureau of Statistics stated in January 2026 that the Chinese population fell for the fourth consecutive year, declining by 3.39 million to 1.4049 billion. Births dropped to 7.92 million, the lowest figure since 1949.

Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute called the 2025 birth crash “a demographic shock of the sort typically associated with dire calamities like famine or plague.”

RAND Corporation projects China will lose 250 million people by 2050. That’s three-quarters of the entire U.S. population. Eberstadt’s conclusion is worth quoting in full because of how reluctant a concession it represents. “Tomorrow’s impending demographic realities, already visible today, will require us to revisit the now-familiar ‘China’s Rise’ narrative. Given the rapid aging and shrinking of the country’s population, by now inevitable in the decades immediately ahead, this may not turn out to be the ‘Chinese Century’ after all.”

Xi mentioned the Thucydides Trap to Trump in Beijing. It was supposed to tell Americans that confrontation with China is reckless, that U.S. managed decline is wisdom, and the only rational response to Chinese ambitions is compromise.

Read the compilation of facts above and ask yourself which of the two national leaders in Beijing on 14 May 2026 was the rising power, and which was the declining power?

Looks like China’s propaganda machine includes Chairman Xi.

Chet Nagle——Bio and Archives

Chet Nagle is an experienced analyst and commentator on international commerce, geopolitics, national security matters, the Middle East, and strategic communications. He has been on radio, has appeared in documentary films and has been a guest on television news programs. His columns have appeared in the Daily Caller, The Hill, Roll Call, and many other publications. He is a contributing editor for ANDmagazine.com and the European Security & Defense magazine.