A new modeling study by researchers at North Carolina State University and Carnegie Mellon University projects that the rapid expansion of data centers supporting artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining could raise wholesale electricity costs by as much as 57% in some U.S. regions by 2030.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, also estimates that power-sector carbon dioxide emissions could be up to 28% higher compared to a future without new data center growth. The findings highlight localized pressure points, particularly in Northern Virginia, where a concentration of data centers already strains the grid.

Data Center Electricity Demand Projected to Quadruple
According to the study, U.S. data centers consumed 176 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2023, representing about 4.4% of total national power use. Under a middle-of-the-road growth scenario, the researchers estimate that total electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining could reach approximately 790 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030 — more than four times the 2023 level. To arrive at their projections, the team tested 13 different scenarios that varied data center growth rates, geographic siting, natural gas prices, and the presence of federal clean energy incentives.

“When pushed, the grid doesn’t reach for the cleanest options first. It reaches for what’s available and cheap,” the study authors wrote, as cited in the research. Under the mid-growth scenario, coal contributes between 12% and 14% of the additional electricity generated to meet data center demand, while natural gas supplies between 64% and 76%. Most of that extra fossil-fuel power comes from running existing coal and gas plants harder rather than building new facilities.

Regional Impact: Coal Plants in Ohio, West Virginia Fill Northern Virginia Demand
The most pronounced regional findings involve Northern Virginia, where a concentration of data centers draws power from aging coal plants in neighboring Ohio and West Virginia. The researchers describe this phenomenon as “carbon leakage,” where emissions are effectively exported from the demand center to wherever cheaper, dirtier power is generated. In Texas, the grid accommodates data center growth primarily through expanded natural gas generation, reflecting a different resource mix and grid structure.

Retail electricity rates in major grid regions from Illinois to New Jersey already rose between 23% and 40% from 2020 to 2024, according to figures cited in the study. Data center demand is a key driver of these increases. According to a report by Consumer Reports, massive data centers are “gobbling up resources across the United States” and consumers may be paying the bill [1]. TechCrunch reported in May 2026 that PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. grid, saw wholesale power prices nearly double year-over-year, with the independent market monitor pointing to data centers as the culprit [2].

Read More: Study: AI, Crypto Data Centers Could Raise Electricity Costs Up to 57% in Some Regions