The drivers of warming and glacier retreat in Antarctic climates are not aligned with a linearly-rising trend of atmospheric CO2.

Scientists (Park et al., 2026) have assessed that over the last four decades the patterns of air temperature, sea surface temperature, and glacier retreat near King George Island (just north of the northernmost tip of the Antarctic Peninsula) align with the negative to positive phases of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) and natural ocean-atmosphere interconnections.

Phases of cooling and glacier advance are mixed with phases of warming and significant glacier retreat, but neither follow a linearly-rising pattern nor trends in greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists identify an overall decline in glacier retreat rates from the mid-1990s until 2015, when “cooler phases slowed retreat.”

The study “demonstrates how coupled fjord geometry-ocean-atmosphere interactions govern retreat behavior.”

Human activity governs neither warming or glacier retreat.

Image Source: Park et al., 2026

Elephant Island is situated just 130 km northeast of King George Island. It is home to a large volume of penguins and seals.

A recent study (Atkinson et al., 2022) reported significant (approximately -0.75°C) surface cooling across Elephant Island (purple) since the 1990s, aligning with cooling along South Georgia, the Scotia Sea, and the overall West Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades.

Image Source: Atkinson et al., 2022