When you think about it, the parallels are almost perfect. A fanatical enemy has been destroyed militarily, yet they don’t surrender. What to do next?

Japan July 1945

After 3 1/2 years of all-out war, the United States has drawn an iron ring around the Empire of Japan. Their powerful navy has been destroyed since October 1944. Their extensive army has been fought to a standstill in China, in Indochina, and across many occupied islands in the Pacific. Major Japanese bases have been cut off and isolated. Their naval and land-based air forces have been destroyed. American strategic bombers and escort fighters are assembled in the Marianas and bring almost daily destruction to another entire city on the Japanese mainland. Iwo Jima has fallen in June to American Marines, providing a major base halfway between the B-29 bases and the Japanese homeland. Okinawa in the Ryukus (considered the southern end of the Japanese home islands) fell to American Army and Marine forces in June and has been mopped up after heavy losses.

After a difficult start with different tactics, the American strategic bomber force, based in the Marianas, carried out a series of devastating incendiary raids at low altitudes. The first one on March 9-10, 1945, created a firestorm in Tokyo and destroyed 26 square miles of the city in one night, killing upwards of 100,000 people. Other Japanese cities followed one after the other until few of consequence were left. Japanese industrial capacity has been utterly destroyed. American naval and land-based aircraft attack the Japanese homeland with impunity as there are no forces left to resist them.

Only a few suicide aircraft, manned by poorly trained volunteer pilots, offer any resistance to the Allied forces closing in upon them. Despite calls to give up, the Japanese government stands mute, refusing to come to terms in the hopes that when the inevitable invasion of the Japanese home islands comes, a continued fanatical resistance by every Japanese citizen will cause so many Allied casualties that they will stumble and fail, leaving the government in place to claim a defiant defensive victory over the Allies.

Surrender or negotiations for terms has been consistently rejected. Both sides wait for developments. The Allies hope the Japanese can see the inevitable result and agree to terms. The Japanese hope the Allies will tire and simply give up before abandoning the war altogether.

Iran May 2026

After 47 years of attacks from proxy armies and countless indirect and often successful efforts to kill and maim Americans, US forces launched punishing attacks across Iran on February 28, 2026. These continued for five weeks, leaving Iran without its first two tiers of leadership, without effective air defense or radars, without a navy, without an air force, without the means to manufacture missiles and drones, and with a destroyed and buried refinement capacity for nuclear fuel and bombs.

The power grid and the oil industry was spared, but the US Navy has established a blockade of all Iranian trade in oil, as it holds all the cards in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman. Iran fires sporadic missiles or drones at civilian ships, but has no naval arm to use against its enemies.

Meanwhile, during the attacks on Iran’s military capabilities, Israel has joined forces to help subdue Iranian forces. Once the initial degradation of Iranian forces began, Israel turned its attention on Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon which have been raining death and destruction on Israel for years. Israel worked hard to subdue these irregular forces which have been trained and supplied with weapons by Iran.

Iran, now facing a total loss of its proxy forces abroad and its military and economic assets at home, raged that it would destroy the United States and its allies. Quietly and out of sight, negotiations went ahead. President Trump ignored the ravings of the factions in Iran and let things move forward at their own pace, all the while firmly insisting that his basic conditions be met.

Early in April the major bombing campaign came to an end and a shaky cease-fire began. With Iran’s military power destroyed and no chance of rescue from Russia or China, the US Navy continued its blockade of vessels going to and from Iranian ports. This economic clampdown meant that oil, Iran’s primary revenue source, could not be exported without the permission of the US Navy. Oil production continued inside Iran, but it went into storage facilities that began to fill fast.

With an aging energy infrastructure, it was only a matter of time until Iran would be unable to continue oil extraction. When that time came, long-term damage to oil and gas wells would begin. This deadline was the backdrop for the drama of secret negotiations between the US and Iran, facilitated by Pakistan and Qatar. These negotiations continued more or less continuously until June 12, when a tentative agreement was announced. A framework agreement was signed on June 14.

The Parallels

There are many similarities between the two scenarios. In both cases the United States had defeated a fanatical opponent. In both cases the defeated opponent refused to surrender.

In 1945 there were few good choices going forward. The Japanese honor code made death preferable to surrender, and there was no expectation that this attitude might change. The prospect of invading the Japanese home islands was a daunting one. Allied estimates projected casualties of one million or more on the Allied side. Based on recent experiences on Iwo Jima (only 200 of 22,000 Japanese troops were taken alive) and Okinawa (with 12,000 American dead and 35,000 wounded) there was no wish to repeat the slaughter in the home islands. 

On the other hand, the nature of the war in the Pacific had been such that it would be necessary to defeat Japan and occupy the home islands one way or another. Overwhelming Allied forces were available for a ground invasion as well as formidable strategic and tactical air forces capable of destroying every Japanese city of any size. A vast navy and its support vessels sat off Japan’s shores. 

The United States built 117 aircraft carriers of all sizes during the war along with other warships. There was the prospect of starving the population with a total blockade since Japan had never been able to feed itself in the modern era. There was no desire to punish the Japanese civilian population for the war, but there might be no other choice before long.

In 2026 the situation offered few choices as well. The diehard regime in Tehran resisted every act of war visited on it with a fury born of religious zeal. With the lessons of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan fresh in mind, the option of invading Iran with a conquering, occupying force was not a good one. Iran is larger than Texas, only with many more mountains. 

There remained sizable military forces in the region including aircraft carrier groups, surface warships, land-based air force units both in theater and from bases further afield. Allied military forces helped keep the pressure up against Iranian attacks. No ‘boots on the ground’ scenario held any attraction for anyone. With the United States in control of the air space over Iran and also controlling the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman, the blockade was in place and could be continued indefinitely, hurting Iran’s trading partners at little cost to the United States beyond a minor increase in oil and gas prices. 

The economic blockade offered the best hope that there could be a negotiated settlement, but the noise coming from Tehran gave every indication that they would remain intractable. Both sides threatened and postured while negotiations went on behind closed doors somewhere. There was no desire to punish the population of Iran, indeed, there was great hope that if certain elements in the military and guard forces could be pushed aside, that the people of Iran might rise up and restore a more reasonable government to the country.

Outcomes

Japan As it turned out, there was a final factor brought into play in 1945. On July 16 scientists successfully tested an atomic bomb in New Mexico. As of the first of August there was enough nuclear material to prepare three more bombs, after which there would have to be an extensive pause before more would be ready. These were built and sent to the Marianas where they could be used to strike Japan. The first of these destroyed the city and port facilities of Hiroshima on August 6. With no response from the Japanese government, a second bomb destroyed the city of Nagasaki on August 9. When President Truman warned the Japanese that there were many more on the way, the Emperor decided that negotiations must begin to end the war. These were successfully concluded four days later.

Iran With the conclusion of the military campaign against Iran the end of April, 2026, and the imposition of the military and economic blockade, there was hope that this pressure, along with the approaching deadline of the oil fields shutdown, would be enough to bring about a settlement. The Iranians bellowed and blustered all the way to the final day and afterward, more than six weeks. On June 14 the announcement that an outline agreement had been reached came almost as a surprise after so many weeks of the emotional ups and downs, breakthroughs and collapses that were bandied about in the world press. As of this writing, the details are still unclear, but Iran is already counting on the speedy resumption of its trade lifeline. Everyone else hopes that the stories about requiring Iranian compliance with the nuclear material provisions before any lifting of sanctions will hold true. At any rate, there has been no ground invasion, no continuation of air strikes, and oil prices began to collapse almost immediately.

In both cases the worst options, bloody ground invasions, have been avoided. On Monday June 15 President Trump said that he hoped that the other option would never have to be used again. It was clear that the other option, the one that ended the war in the Pacific in 1945, would not be necessary this time. All of humanity has been praying that this will be true, but fanatical hatred born of zealotry takes a powerful grip on some people. Time will tell just how powerful that grip will be, and how resolute the forces of the good will remain in the face of it all.

Dr. Bruce Smith——Bio and Archives

Dr. Bruce Smith (Inkwell, Hearth and Plow) is a retired professor of history and a lifelong observer of politics and world events. He holds degrees from Indiana University and the University of Notre Dame. In addition to writing, he works as a caretaker and handyman. His non-fiction book The War Comes to Plum Street, about daily life in the 1930s and during World War II,  may be ordered from Indiana University Press.