The American President’s Iran gamble is poised on a knife edge. Right now, it’s currently getting harder to find commentators who are backing him to the hilt. Even some of his more usually supportive backers are getting cold feet. Andrew Day in American Conservative is worried that Trump might use nukes in Iran:

A new rhetorical theme emerged last week, when Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”. The phrase is associated with Curtis LeMay, who served as Air Force chief of staff during the Vietnam war. LeMay is known for something else too: his promotion of nuclear weapons and complaint that Americans had a “phobia” of using them.

Trump doesn’t seem to share that deranged perspective, but nuclear anxieties are growing thanks to his belligerence. Two weeks ago, a United Nations representative resigned from his post and leaked the disturbing information that “the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran”. Days earlier, officials from the World Health Organisation told Politico they were worried about a possible nuclear attack.

If Trump decides to go further and actually push the big red button, at least one of his main advisors likely wouldn’t object. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has echoed Trump’s threat to send Iran back to the Stone Age, and he says US armed forces should aim for “maximum lethality, not tepid legality”.

Other Trump insiders might even encourage Trump to go nuclear. The late Sheldon Adelson, who went on to become a Trump megadonor, said in 2013 that the US should detonate a nuclear weapon in an Iranian desert to demonstrate toughness. “And then you say, ‘See? The next one is in the middle of Tehran,’” he explained. Adelson’s widow, Miriam Adelson, remains a top Trump whisperer and Iran superhawk. Might she be giving similar advice today?

Trump’s luck has indeed run out in Iran, as I had predicted it would. He seems poised to escalate further, but conventional air power hasn’t managed to deliver a knockout blow, and ground force operations would bring significant risks with limited upside. Trump appears to be trapped, and I fear he thinks a mushroom cloud would offer him enough cover to get out.

The Washington Times reported criticism of Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran’s infrastructure and the President’s suggestion that the Iranian people would accept such destruction if it meant ending the regime:

Trump repeated his threat to wipe out Iranian bridges and power plants late Tuesday if the Iranians do not negotiate a suitable deal that includes freedom of navigation, including oil shipments, in the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Flanked by top defence officials, Trump said Iranian civilians would accept devastating attacks on their power plants and bridges if it meant being liberated from the Islamic republic’s brutal regime.

“They would be willing to suffer that in order to have freedom,” Trump said.

Nicholas Hopton in the Spectator says Iran has offered the US an olive branch that might save face on both sides:

Beneath the familiar slogans and entrenched positions, there remains in Tehran a current of thought that recognises the limits of confrontation and accepts the necessity of engagement. Unusually, given that the Islamic Republic of Iran is normally comfortable with lose-lose outcomes, what Zarif is putting on the table, no matter how hypothetically, might potentially lead to a win-win result.

Whether Washington is prepared to meet it halfway is another matter entirely.

Read More: Is Trump About to Nuke Iran?