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How Feasible Is a European Nuclear Deterrent Without Washington?

3 weeks ago 13

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In 2025, James Cameron wrote, “Eurodeterrent: A Vision for an Anglo-French Nuclear Force,” where he argued the United Kingdom and France should cooperate to develop a nuclear deterrent umbrella for Europe, independent of Washington. A year later, after French President Emmanuel Macron’s landmark nuclear speech, we asked him to revisit his argument. Image: SAC Rob Bourne/MODIn your 2025 article, you argued that, given Europe’s perceived uncertainty about the U.S. commitment to its security and defense, the United Kingdom and France should cooperate to develop a nuclear deterrent umbrella independent of Washington. In July 2025, the United Kingdom and France signed the Northwood Declaration, and in March 2026, Macron announced new doctrinal shifts in French nuclear policy, namely introducing a “forward deterrence” concept. Do these developments match the Anglo-French framework you proposed, or is “forward deterrence” a materially different model?Macron’s forward deterrence concept is a very welcome development. It is the most detailed European response to the new era of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. extended-deterrent commitment to the continent. Macron announced a series of measures to concretize the “European dimension” of French vital interests, including bilateral nuclear dialogues, partner participation in French nuclear exercises, an increase in French nuclear warheads, and the potential temporary forward deployment of French nuclear-capable aircraft. Although published earlier, the Northwood Declaration fits well within the framework Macron outlined, with reference to the joint vital interests of the United Kingdom and France, joint exercises, and the establishment of a bilateral nuclear steering group. However, Macron stated that France does not intend to replace U.S. extended deterrence. So the basic aim differs fundamentally from mine. The concept is focused on France’s vital interests, and the exact nature of those remains vague and at the discretion of the French president. Similarly, the vital interests of the United Kingdom and France are not defined in the Northwood

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