Trump’s tariffs on Brazil come as the South American giant closes in on the United States as the world’s leading agricultural exporter.

Brazil’s rise as an agricultural powerhouse reveals how food production has become a strategic source of power, and why it matters far beyond global commodity markets.

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Amid tariffs and a trade war, Brazil is closing in on the United States as the world’s top agricultural exporter.

In 2025, US farm exports reached $171 billion, while Brazil posted $169.2 billion – a gap of just $2 billion after years in which the gap stood at $56 billion.

In the first half of 2026 alone, Brazilian agribusiness exports hit a record $87 billion, up 6 percent, driven by soybeans, beef, chicken, cotton and coffee.

The Financial Times recently described this shift as “The fall of America’s farm superpower,” noting how China has pivoted heavily toward Brazilian supplies.

This little-discussed aspect of American decline as a superpower comes at a delicate moment: President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on Brazilian goods, officially tied to forced labor concerns and unfair trade practices. Brazilian officials called the measures “arbitrary” and “unjustified”.

Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues the forced labor case against Brazil is not really about forced labor but rather is a “US demand that Brazil enlist in America’s economic war on China.”

In any case, new US tariffs threaten over a third of Brazilian agribusiness trade, hitting roughly $11 billion in exports and deepening the decline in trade.

To be sure, Brazil’s agricultural rise is not the only reason behind the tariffs; they are not solely a reaction to the country becoming an agricultural superpower. They also reflect, however, a broader convergence of economic competition, geopolitical rivalry and American industrial policy. Brazil’s rise has made it a more consequential economic competitor, thereby increasing the significance of any trade dispute.

One may recall that the Sout American nation gained substantial market share partly because of earlier US-China trade tensions. When Washington imposed tariffs on Chinese goods during Trump’s first term, Beijing responded by slashing purchases of American soybeans and other farm products: China then turned to Brazil. By 2025, It was shipping more than 80 million tons of soybeans to China, well ahead of the US (below 10 million).

This nation has thus deepened its trade ties with China and become increasingly important to global food security. Washington, not surprisingly, sees risks in this shift.

The new tariffs therefore reflect not just a bilateral trade dispute but a wider effort by the American superpower to manage competition in an increasingly multipolar global economy, while American food power declines. Brazil’s success has made it a more significant strategic competitor, even if that is not the stated reason for the tariffs.

This also exposes a common misconception: the misleading idea that farm and agricultural production belong mainly to “Third World” countries. Agriculture is often associated with developing economies because many poorer nations depend heavily on exporting raw commodities. Being a true food superpower, however, is something quite different: it means possessing the capacity to feed hundreds of millions beyond one’s own population and becoming indispensable to global markets.

Food is a strategic resource that every country needs every day, regardless of economic cycles. States that control large shares of grain, meat, soybeans, fertilizers or edible oils thereby gain enduring leverage. Disruptions can trigger inflation, social unrest and even political instability abroad.

Historically, America’s agricultural dominance was also a pillar of its global power, complementing its military, financial and technological strength. During the Cold War, food exports served as instruments of diplomacy and coercion. Works such as “Food Power: The Rise and Fall of the Postwar American Food System” and “Agrarian Superpower” detail how Washington deployed this tool on the world stage.

The topic of “food power” has come to light lately especially in the context of the US-China trade war, where food emerged as a potential “weapon”. The point is that in the 21st century, a superpower is not just one that can project military force or dominate finance. It is also one that can secure critical supply chains, including food. In an era of climate change, population growth and geopolitical fragmentation, the ability to reliably produce and export food is becoming an increasingly valuable, though often underappreciated, source of national power.

Food is thus no longer viewed merely as a commodity but as a strategic asset comparable to energy, technology and critical minerals. Accordingly, control over production and exports enhances a state’s resilience, diplomatic leverage and influence.

Ultimately, Brazil’s ascent highlights the transition from a Washington-centered global trading system toward a more polycentric one.

Countries like Brazil now carry enough market power to give trade disputes geopolitical as well as economic significance.

Moreover, Trump’s tariffs also fit into a pattern of renewed pressure on Brazil, including potential military tensions. As I noted before, this takes place in the context of a revived Monroe Doctrine approach (“neo-Monroeism”).

There are domestic factors too. US farmers, one of Trump’s most loyal political constituencies, do face real pain: input costs are substantially higher than those of Brazilian counterparts, and margins have shrunk. American producers still generate enormous harvests, but low prices, trade tensions and lost market share have created tough times.

The Latin American country, by contrast, benefits from multiple harvests per year, cheaper land in many regions and genetic adaptations suited to its climate.

Brazil’s rise clearly does not mean the United States has collapsed as a farm power – it remains impressive. Yet the trend is clear and thus far favors continued Brazilian gains. Tariffs may slow bilateral trade, but they are unlikely to reverse deeper structural shifts in global markets.

This episode reminds us that in today’s world, agricultural strength translates directly into geopolitical weight. As supply chains fragment and great-power competition intensifies, food security will increasingly matter, way beyond commodity prices.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Uriel Araujo, Anthropology PhD, is a social scientist specializing in ethnic and religious conflicts, with extensive research on geopolitical dynamics and cultural interactions. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

Featured image is from the author/InfoBrics

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