An expert has given his verdict as to whether hackers could trigger a full-on nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. Authorities in Ukraine and Moscow said their emergency alert mobile apps have been targeted by cyberattacks, with users in Ukraine receiving false warnings of an imminent nuclear threat. Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons and defence industry and fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of the Queen’s University in Canada, told the Express: “The risks exist, but they are minimal. Cyber intrusion into nuclear command and control systems is entirely conceivable.

“In such a scenario, early-warning systems could be manipulated to generate false signals of an imminent attack. With very little time available for decision-making, a false alarm from a compromised system could theoretically prompt the launch of missiles before incoming enemy warheads reach their targets. The risk of such a scenario increases significantly during periods of acute conflict escalation.”

But he added that the decision to launch a retaliatory strike is not based on data from a single subsystem. “In Russia, for example, radar systems would be a particularly important source of information,” Dr Starchak said. “If they detected no incoming missiles, there would be no retaliatory strike.

“Moreover, the final decision rests with a country’s political leadership, which may have its own reasons for refraining from an immediate retaliatory strike until there is absolute certainty that the country has been attacked. There must also be complete confidence about who carried out the attack and whether it is part of a wider nuclear attack being prepared.

“Following a cyberattack, this may remain unclear for some time.” Security expert Professor Anthony Gless suggested Russia could deploy a “devastating cyber attack to take out our critical national cyber infrastructure”, which could be “the first stage of what would ultimately be a nuclear attack on a NATO country, even on the UK”.

Prof. Glees added: “Our nuclear weapons doctrine is a ‘no first strike’ policy, meaning that we would only use our nuclear arsenal to respond to a nuclear attack from Russia (or any other hostile nation). We believe Russia in particular understands this. The danger of course is that Russia might feel safe in launching a cyber attack on us which would replicate many of the effects that a nuclear strike on us with ‘theatre’ nukes would achieve.”

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