Hi Everyone,

Once again, I am back to discuss the war. I try to keep my emotions and moral judgements out of this, although I definitely have them. But my focus continues to come back to the mantra I learned as a child: “don’t pick a fight you can’t win.” 

I am not saying that is the only moral guideline one should live by. But I do think it’s a wise policy for nations. In this case, it seems clear (to me) that the United States and Israel embarked on a reckless gamble that never had a good chance of success, and a big chance of backfiring. Very much like US policy toward Ukraine and Russia. It really seems that one reason empires decline is that they don’t learn that lesson. They assume they will be the big dog forever. 

In this case, Iran’s greatest military strength exploits the United States’ greatest weakness: an abundance of missiles and drones versus an obsolete doctrine of defense. Simply put, the U.S. (and Israel for that matter) cannot defend against these, and it shows all too clearly. 

This is turning out to be something catastrophic for western planners. A greater blunder than the promotion of war by Ukraine against Russia (and yes, the U.S. absolutely promoted that war and did so for many years prior). But this looks much worse. 

In this 27 minute video, I try to lay out the problems. From a political standpoint, they are virtually insurmountable. I honestly don’t think the Trump or Netanyahu governments can come out on top in any conceivable way. This will only go downhill. 

I take no joy in saying any of this, not even schadenfreude, as some people undoubtedly are doing. Not me, at least. To me, this is a great tragedy and we are likely all to pay a price in the coming months and possibly years. 

I do hope I am wrong. Anyway, this is what I have on it at the current time. 

Blessings to everyone here. Timestamps below (and hyperlinked on the Youtube version)

Richard