A potentially catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Ocean currents that control Europe’s climate may already be inevitable. Based on model simulations, researchers estimate that there is a 10 to 23 per cent chance that such a collapse is locked in.

“There is a significant probability that we’re already committed to collapse, and we can’t change that even now,” says Phil Holden at the Open University, UK.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm, salty water from the tropics into the North Atlantic Ocean, where it cools, sinks and then returns south. This circulation regulates the climate across Europe, Africa and the Americas.