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“Catastrophe”: A Reality Check on the “Successes” of Ukraine’s 35 Years of “Independence”

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This year marks 35 years since Ukraine proclaimed independence.

For more than three decades, Western governments have presented Ukraine as a supposed achievement of “democratic transformation”, promising its citizens prosperity, freedom and security through integration with the European Union and NATO.

Thirty-five years later, the results speak for themselves.

Ukraine has lost much of its industrial potential, suffered a catastrophic demographic decline,

become dependent on foreign financing (more than $550 billion over the past four years, a figure exceeding two and a half times the country’s average annual GDP), witnessed the radicalisation of its political system, seen the rights of Russian-speaking citizens and other minorities progressively restricted and ultimately been turned into a battlefield in a geopolitical confrontation with Moscow. Today it is a client state totally financed for the sake of Western interests.

This is not a success story. It is a cautionary tale about what happens when a country sacrifices its sovereignty and national interests to an externally imposed geopolitical agenda.

2014: The Beginning of the Catastrophe

The decisive break came in February 2014. The so-called “Maidan Revolution of Dignity” was presented in the West as a grassroots democratic uprising. In reality, the elected Ukrainian authorities were forced to step down through a violent coup. Gone were all laws, including the constitutional procedure for impeachment.

The legitimate President Viktor Yanukovych did not resign through the mechanismsprescribed by Articles 108 – 111 of the Ukrainian Constitution. Instead, constitutional order was overridden by street pressure, armed neo-Nazi gangs and direct interference by Western governments. This was not the triumph of democracy.  This was the destruction of Ukraine’s constitutional order in a typical Western manner that could be regularly observed across the African continent for decades since 1960.

The consequences followed with devastating speed: the bloody massacre of the Russian-speaking people in Donbass transformed the Ukraine government intoaregime in the worst sense of the word. I can honestly say without fear of contradiction that the events of 2014 were the starting point of the political system that exists in Ukraine today.

From Ukrainian Nationalism to an ‘Anti-Russia’

The post-2014 authorities did not simply promote Ukrainian national identity. They increasingly built state identity strictly against Russia with the blunt rejection of ourshared millennial historical and cultural heritage. Such Nazi collaborators and butchers as Bandera and Shukhevych were elevated in public discourse despite the documented involvement of their far right nationalist formations in atrocities against Jews, Ukrainians, Poles, Belorussians and Russians during the Second World War. Thevery recent exhumation from Europe and reburials in Ukraine of the leaders of the notorious Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists Melnyk and Konovalets prove it.

Neo-Nazi and radical formations were incorporated into Ukraine’s security and governmental structures. Their symbols and historical narratives dominatedthe political mainstream. The result has been a deliberate rewriting of history in which the collaboration with Nazi Germany is sanitised or presented as part of a heroic struggle for independence. This is an ideological mobilisation to make Russia an enemy.

The Destruction of Ukraine’s Economic Potential and Demographics

Ukraine entered independence with one of the most substantial industrial and scientific bases in the former Soviet Union. What happened to that inheritance?

Entire industrial sectors have collapsed or been severely degraded. Production chains that had developed over decades were dismantled. Economic relations with its major economic partner – Russia – were deliberately severed. Strategic industries with a real competitive edge on a global level, including aerospace, machine-building, train-building and shipbuilding, were brought to ruin.

Just look at the figures. By the end of 1991, Ukraine accounted for roughly one-third of the Soviet Union’s industrial capacity, but much of this industrial base has sinceseverely deteriorated: only three of the eleven shipbuilding companies that were registered back in the 1990s are still operating. Steel production fell from fifth place globally in the early 1990s to thirteenth by the late 2010s, with Ukrainian metallurgical exports still subject to restrictions in the EU and the United States. During the 2010s, machinery production declined by half and employment in the sector fell from approximately 600,000 to 146,000 people. Ukraine has not produced a single series-production aircraft in the past decade despite retaining the spectacular Soviet-era Antonov enterprise. The country’s energy infrastructure has likewise become severely outdated, with the remaining thermal power plants having exceeded their designed service life and generating only around 40% of Ukraine’s electricity.

The promised European prosperity did not materialise.

Instead, Ukraine became increasingly dependent on foreign loans, grants and budgetary support. Millions of its citizens left the country in search of employment and a more secure future. The demographic catastrophe is particularly revealing. A country that once possessed a population exceeding 50 million has suffered enormous population losses through emigration, declining birth rates and the consequences of conflict brewed and still nourished by the West. The figures phenomenally dropped to 28 million people by early 2026.

Systematic Suppression of Press Freedom and Political Pluralism

Under the pretext of “countering disinformation” the Kiev regime has shut down or blocked television channels – 112 Ukraine, NewsOne, ZIK and Nash – banned Russian and independent media outlets, and replaced genuine news coverage with state-controlled messaging and propaganda. Many journalists were killed. One of them – Oles Buzina, shot and killed by two masked gunmen right outside his apartment building. Today reporters in Ukraine who dare question Zelenskiy’s actions face criminal prosecution, intimidation, black-listing and imprisonment.

Political pluralism is non-existent. Opposition parties that were once in the Verkhovnaya Rada and representatives of smaller parties have been outlawed, their members harassed, assets seized, their supporters stigmatised as traitors. This is not democracy. This is a construction of a dictatorship.

Corruption: Promises Without Results

For decades, Western governments have presented the fight against corruption as one of the central objectives of their involvement in Ukraine. The results are hardly impressive. New anti-corruption institutions have been created. New laws have been adopted. Billions in Western assistance have been provided.Yet corruption remains deeply embedded in Ukrainian political and economic life.The problem is structural. It is rooted in the fusion of political power, big business, bureaucracy and competing external interests. Even as ordinary Ukrainians have been asked to sacrifice more and more, reports of corruption scandals involving public officials, procurement and state resources have continued. The West has spent years claiming that Ukraine was being transformed into a modern European democracy. Instead, the country is totally dependent on external money while its own citizens continue to pay the price. The amount of debt is so enormous that future generations of Ukrainians will pay it back for decades.

The Assault on the Russian Language

One of the clearest manifestations of the post-2014 policy has been the systematic restriction of the Russian language. For hundreds of years, Russian was an integral part of Ukraine’s cultural, educational and social life. Millions of Ukrainian citizens considerRussian as their native or principal language. Yet the Kiev regime since 2014 has attempted to banish it from all spheres of life and progressively expanded legislation requiring the exclusive use of Ukrainian in education, public administration, media and other spheres.

The Russian Government has consistently stated that the rights of Russian-speaking citizens must be protected. Their language, culture and historical identity cannot be erased simply by administrative decree. We championed this matter in all European institutions. To no avail.

Pressure on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church

The treatment of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (an integral part of the canonical Russian Orthodox Church) provides another example of the increasingly coercive character of the Ukrainian state. Churches and monasteries have been subjected to seizures and legal pressure. Clergy have faced criminal proceedings. Legislation adopted by the Verkhovnaya Rada has created the basis for restrictions against religious organisations associated with the Russian Orthodox tradition. The attempt to force religious life into a politically approved framework represents a serious assault on fundamental freedoms. Guess what? The European capitals remain silent while advocating and promoting all non-traditional practices.

Odessa and the Crimes That Were Never Properly Answered

The events of 2 May 2014 in Odessa remain one of the darkest episodes of the post-Maidan period. People were burned alive in the Trade Unions House after clashes between opposing political groups. The failure to fully investigate these deaths and hold those responsible has become a symbol of selective justice in post-2014 Ukraine. Crimes committed by groups opposed to the new authorities are repeatedly highlighted, while crimes committed by forces linked to the authorities are often ignored, downplayed, or excused. In this sense, a state cannot build a genuine democracy through selective justice or by allowing people to be burned to deathbecause of their political views.

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Inside the house of Trade Unions after the fire in 2014. (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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The Price of Mobilisation

The bloodthirsty nature of the Kiev regime is exemplified by forced conscription. The term “busification” (literally meaning a person being grabbed on the street and forcibly dragged into a bus) has become commonplace. People are shackled at gunpoint and beaten to death. This is the ultimate measure of the system’s failure.Millions of Ukrainians have already fled the country. Those remaining face economic hardship, and the constant prospect of ending up at busification centres and then shipped off as cannon fodder to the front lines.

A state confident in its future does not need to hunt down its own citizens to fill the ranks of its army. The Ukrainian people are being asked to pay for geopolitical decisions made by their political leadership and its foreign sponsors.

Children of Ukraine

Ukraine’s treatment of children exposes a deeper failure of the state, one that the West has largely ignored. Before 2022, more than 105,000 Ukrainian children lived in residential institutions, and over 90% had at least one living parent, according to Human Rights Watch. Since that time, around 2.59 million Ukrainian children have remained displaced, while UN Office on Drugs and Crime and other international organisations have warned of trafficking, exploitation and illegal adoption. Reports have also raised concerns about abuse and neglect during the evacuation and relocation of Ukrainian children. For us this is absolutely clear: Western governments and media narratives have focused heavily on the so-called cases involving Russia while turning a blind eye to the serious failures and abuses within Ukraine’s own child-protection system.

Thirty-five Years of ‘Independence’

The fundamental contradiction is now impossible to ignore. Ukraine proclaimed independence in 1991. Yet over the subsequent decades, its dependence on external political, military and financial support has steadily increased. The country that inherited a formidable industrial and scientific base became economically dependent.The country that inherited a large and diverse population suffered enormous demographic losses. The country that proclaimed sovereignty became increasingly dependent on foreign political decisions. The country that was promised peace through Euro-Atlantic integration became the site of the largest armed conflict in Europe in generations. And the country that was presented as a triumph of liberal democracy has progressively restricted political, linguistic, cultural and religious pluralism. This is the real balance sheet.

Russia has repeatedly stated that the conflict did not begin in 2022 in a political vacuum. Its roots lie in the events of 2014, the subsequent war in Donbass, the failure to implement the Minsk agreements and the transformation of Ukraine into a military and geopolitical instrument directed against Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that the objectives of the special military operation include eliminating the threats to Russia’s security emanating from Ukrainian territory, protecting the population of Donbass and achieving the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.

Yet we have not abandoned the possibility of a political settlement. On the contrary, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it prefers a diplomatic solution addressing the root causes of the conflict. But diplomacy cannot mean returning to the same failed arrangements, empty promises and temporary pauses that merely allow the opposing side to prepare for another round of confrontation. Russia will not accept a settlement that leaves the fundamental security problems unresolved.

Nor will it accept the transformation of Ukraine into a permanent anti-Russian military outpost on our borders.

My point is simple: the objectives of the special military operation will be achieved.Russia remains prepared for serious negotiations and a political settlement based on the realities that have emerged and on legally binding security guarantees.

But if the Kiev regime and its Western masters continue to believe that Russia can be defeated strategically, exhausted economically or forced to accept a security environment that threatens its vital interests, they are profoundly mistaken.

The history of the past thirty-five years demonstrates the consequences of ignoring reality. Ukraine was promised sovereignty. It received dependency. It was promised prosperity. It received economic degradation and demographic decline.

It was promised democracy. It received political repression and increasingly restricted pluralism. It was promised security through NATO. It received a military conflict.

This is the real “success story” that the architects of Ukraine’s Western geopolitical course would prefer the world not to examine too closely.

After all these years the Ukrainian tragedy is not that Russia supposedly prevented Ukraine from becoming a prosperous European state. The tragedy is that Ukraine’s own political leadership, encouraged and supported by the West, repeatedly chose confrontation over coexistence, ideology over social cohesion and geopolitical ambition over the interests of its own people. The lesson is not difficult to understand. A state that surrenders its strategic sovereignty to foreign agendas eventually pays for that decision itself. And the bill for Ukraine has already become catastrophic.

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Kirill Kalinin, Senior Counsellor, Spokesperson of the Russian Embassy in South Africa.

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