Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOver the last two weeks, President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened major attacks on Iran. Going into the weekend, multiple news outlets reported that he was mulling a major bombing campaign — which would almost certainly result in retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases and allies around the region. But late Saturday night, Trump asserted that a deal was in the works to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, based on which he would hold fire for the time being.Iranian leaders, regional mediators, and U.S. officials have sounded cautiously upbeat about the possibility of a deal between Iran and Oman to divvy up management of the critical chokepoint. Reopening the strait was one of the original objectives of the memorandum of understanding reached between Washington and Tehran in June. If an emerging compromise over the strait succeeds, it could bring the two sides back to proper negotiations that collapsed as the memorandum of understanding acrimoniously fell apart in July. However, previous disagreements over what they had agreed suggest that a new understanding on Hormuz might just be the first step, with complex issues such as a regional ceasefire, economic relief for Iran, and Iran’s nuclear program still lying ahead.The U.S. Coast Guard cutter USCGC Aquidneck (WPB 1309) transits the Strait of Hormuz, Dec. 2, 2020. Image: MC2 Indra Beaufort via Wikimedia Commons Russia The signs that war is coming home to Russia are becoming harder to ignore. On Aug. 3, a Ukrainian drone crashed into a Black Sea resort beach as the warning system failed to sound, killing at least seven people. Ukrainian long-range strikes have cut Russian oil-refining to a 24-year low. On July 30, the government extended