Brand new polling from Arizona reveals a paradox that should alarm Democrats who believe they’re guaranteed a sweeping blue wave victory in the midterm elections. Grand Canyon State voters are frustrated with the economy, yet they’re far from thrilled with the Democrats as an alternative.

A League of American Workers survey of 1,513 likely Arizona voters, conducted by Wick, captures an electorate in a very sour mood, particularly over their economic outlook. A 44% plurality of voters say their personal finances have worsened over the past year with Republicans in full control in Washington, while just 17% report improvement. Among independents, the gap widens to 48% worse versus just 16% better.

In a conventional midterm, economic pain of that magnitude would automatically doom the party holding the White House and Congress.

But there are some data points that are positive for Republicans’ chances.