Robert Pape built the database the FBI uses to find the next attacker — 25 years of every suicide attack on earth. He has been modelling a US–Iran war for two decades. His read on the war we just called a win: Iran came out of it STRONGER, and the attack he is bracing for does not land in Tehran. It lands here. Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and can threaten virtually any ship that moves through it — a fifth of the world's oil. Pape puts the odds of American ground troops inside Iran at close to 70%. And in 25 years of his own data, one condition predicts a suicide attacker better than religion, poverty or ideology: foreign troops controlling land a population calls home. We are about to create that condition. This is what his model says happens next — in his own words. CHAPTERS 0:00 America is the target 1:04 He modelled this exact war for 20 years 1:08 Why Iran is stronger AFTER we bombed it 1:54 The Strait of Hormuz: how one country holds the world's oil 2:50 The escalation trap 4:15 "We're on the Titanic, and we're about to hit the iceberg" 4:43 The odds of US ground troops in Iran: nearly 70% 6:27 Kuwait, and the "unforgettable lesson" 7:40 The attack he is actually bracing for 8:07 Why occupation is the #1 trigger of suicide terrorism 8:24 Embassies evacuate. Americans told to leave. 9:31 The database that predicts who attacks next WHO IS ROBERT PAPE Director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST) at the University of Chicago, and author of "Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism". CPOST maintains the most complete database of suicide attacks in the world. SOURCES • Robert Pape, interviewed on The Diary Of A CEO • CPOST, University of Chicago — cpost.uchicago.edu • Robert Pape, "Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism" • Strait of Hormuz oil-transit share — U.S. Energy Information Administration • Statement of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, read on Iranian state television, July 2026 — reported by France 24 and The Times of Israel • FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces placed on alert — Newsweek, Fox News IMAGE CREDITS Aqaba, Jordan sequence — via Wikimedia Commons: • "Aqaba in Jordan" — Are G Nilsen, CC BY-SA 3.0 • "K. Hussein St., Aqaba" — Adeeb Atwan, CC BY 3.0 • "Tala Bay, Aqaba" — Sarahamjad, CC BY-SA 4.0 • "Aqaba Port" — Etan J. Tal, CC BY 3.0 • "Aqaba long exposure" — AliAbuRas, CC BY-SA 4.0 • "Seaport of Aqaba" — Totoyba2, CC BY-SA 3.0 • "Aqaba resort" — jrtaylor08, CC BY-SA 3.0 • "Aqaba BW" — Berthold Werner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Military and strike imagery: U.S. Department of Defense / U.S. Navy / U.S. Air Force / U.S. Marine Corps / U.S. Central Command — public domain. This video is analysis and commentary. Clips of Robert Pape are used to represent his own stated position accurately and in context. #Iran #RobertPape #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #StraitOfHormuz