After months spent cheering Ukraine’s so-called turning of the tide, the fall has brought with it a more sober reality for Kiev and its European partners. Ukraine has now lost whatever momentum it had and faces a shortage of funds and a lack of air defense, while also being blockaded from the sea and barraged by drone and missile attacks that threaten to severely disrupt daily life in major cities. 

Sensing Ukraine’s desperation, Washington has half-heartedly restarted attempts at deescalation, with calls for an energy ceasefire or a truce in the Black Sea to facilitate grain exports. An initiative aimed at brokering the latter led jointly by Turkey and the UN is expected to intensify this month. Unfortunately, these and other similar efforts come too late and are likely to fail, leaving Kiev facing a difficult and punishing winter.

There is, however, something that Ukraine’s partners can do to help: start planning now for a serious push to end the war in 2027. To be successful, a future diplomatic campaign would have to look very different than past attempts to broker peace. Specifically, Kiev, Washington, and European capitals will need to internalize three lessons they have stubbornly ignored to this point: Shifts in momentum are temporary; more time will not fundamentally improve, and likely worsens, Ukraine’s negotiating position; and any peace will require painful and unpopular concessions by Kiev.