Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2025

Posted on 13 November 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Robust increase in observed heat storage by the global subsurface, Cuesta-Valero et al., Science Advances

Changes in heat storage within the different components of the climate system alter physical and biogeochemical phenomena relevant for human societies and ecosystems. Among such processes, permafrost thawing, soil carbon storage, and surface energy exchanges depend on the persistent heat gain by the continental subsurface. Nevertheless, there are not enough data to estimate ground heat storage at the global scale after the year 2000. We solve this problem by expanding the database of geothermal data with remote sensing observations from satellite platforms. Estimates from satellite data show a heat gain between 16.4 ± 3.4 and 21.78 ± 0.62 zettajoules during the past six decades. The global ground heat storage presents a positive acceleration between 0.16 ± 0.15 and 0.624 ± 0.032 zettajoules per square decade, similarly to the rest of components of the Earth heat inventory. The planned satellite missions ensure the monitoring of the land component of the Earth heat inventory in the future.

Bridging the Gap: Empowering Rural Teachers to Navigate the Complex Terrain of Climate Science Education, Scheer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Despite significant resources dedicated to climate science education, teachers often encounter unique challenges due to local cultural and social norms. This study investigates these challenges faced by teachers in rural eastern Colorado when teaching anthropogenic climate change mandated in state academic standards. We explored teachers’ confidence in their knowledge, their belief in the importance of teaching this topic, and concerns about potential risks that influenced their teaching decisions. We found that teachers’ instructional choices are shaped by both their lack of understanding of the scientific evidence for climate change and concerns about community backlash. These findings highlight the need for support that goes beyond simply improving teachers’ scientific knowledge. We recommend 1) providing local examples to make climate science more relevant to students’ lives, 2) involving community members and school administrators in professional development to foster a supportive environment, and 3) partnering with trusted local figures, such as agricultural extension agents, to build bridges between scientific expertise and local knowledge.

Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science, Juanchich et al., Nature Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments (N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described with negative low probability terms as reflecting lower scientific consensus than probabilistically equivalent but positively framed terms. The effect persists after controlling for beliefs in climate change, familiarity with the IPCC and political orientation, although it weakens when the projected values exceeded participants’ personal expectations. Participants also associate negative low-probability terms more strongly with extreme outcomes and judge them as less evidence-based than their positive counterparts. We recommend using positive verbal probabilities to communicate comparable levels of uncertainty without undermining perceptions of scientific consensus and evidence.

Accelerated rifting in response to regional climate change in the East African Rift System, Muirhead et al., Scientific Reports

Continental rifting is influenced by interactions between tectonic, magmatic, and surface processes, with the latter strongly dependent on regional climate. We test the role of regional climate variability on rift system behavior, by investigating fault slip rate changes in the South Turkana Basin (Lake Turkana Rift, northern Kenya) at the end of the African Humid Period. Throw rates on 27 faults examined during the African Humid Period (9,631–5,333 yr BP) and post-African Humid Period (5,333 yr BP–present) exhibit a mean 0.17 ± 0.08 mm/yr increase during the drier, post-African Humid Period. Numerical simulations reveal Coulomb stress changes from two loading sources that may explain these changes: (1) reduced vertical loading from a 100–150 m lake level drop, and (2) increased magmatic loading from enhanced mantle melt production due to reduced lake loading. An increase in magma flux of > 0.1 km3/kyr below the South Turkana Basin results in Coulomb stress changes exceeding those expected from a 100–150 m lake level drop. We provide the first empirical evidence of increased fault activity in response to climate-induced lake level changes in the East African Rift System over time scales of 103–104 years, and reveal that climate-tectonic interactions are enhanced in magmatically active rift systems.

From this week's government/NGO section:

State of the Cryosphere 2025 Ice Loss = Global Damage, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Current unambitious climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, spell disaster for billions of people from global ice loss, but that damage can still be prevented, according to the authors. The authors note that thresholds likely at just 1°C of warming for the stability of the polar ice sheets and even lower temperatures for many glaciers. The authors also note however that the most proactive climate pathways, also released today, can bring down temperatures below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C next century – but only if reductions begin immediately.

Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa, testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba, Clarke et al., World Weather Attribution

Hurricane Melissa moved very slowly across the Caribbean, allowing the storm to gather immense destructive energy over very warm ocean waters. When it finally made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, the storm hit a region familiar with hurricanes, but unaccustomed to one of such exceptional strength and intensity. To estimate if human-induced climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, the authors first determined if there is a trend in the observations. In Jamaica, they found that heavy 5-day rainfall events such as the one associated with Melissa are about 30% more intense and about twice as likely in today’s climate, that is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human-induced climate change. In Eastern Cuba the observations show an even stronger increase of about 50% in intensity and a factor 9 in frequency. Taking all lines of evidence together, including the observations, the IRIS analysis, other studies in the region, and physical reasoning, that in a warming climate an increase in heavy rainfall is expected, the authors estimate an increase in intensity of the rainfall associated with hurricanes like Melissa to be larger than 9%.

128 articles in 59 journals by 908 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Mean Kinetic Energy and Its Projected Changes Dominate Over Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean, Rieck et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117957

The impacts of climate change on tropical-to-extratropical transitions in the North Atlantic Basin, Garin et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-6-1379-2025

Weakened Stratification Across the Eurasian Basin Enables Enhanced Vertical Spreading of Atlantic Water, Challet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022632

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic climate change has increased severity of mid-latitude storms and impacted airport operations, Rapella et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1219

Anthropogenic Forcing and Upwelling Accelerate Aragonite Undersaturation in the Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023039

Brief communication: Decadal changes in topography, surface water and subsurface structure across an Arctic coastal tundra site, Bachman et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2341

Changes in wildfire season in Alaska and the consequences for ambient fine PM in recent decades, Gaw et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105076

Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide, Graham et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y

Extreme warming of Amazon waters in a changing climate, Santos Fleischmann et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adr4029

Increasing coupling of hot-dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection, Feng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.011

Increasing extreme heat events in the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere, FENG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001

Long-term trends and variability modes in extreme weather of New York City, Belkhiri & Devineni, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102647

Mortality impacts of rainfall and sea-level rise in a developing megacity, Bearpark et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09730-4

Pan-alpine summer temperatures since 742 CE, Esper et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126432

Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Cluett et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02482-z

Robust increase in observed heat storage by the global subsurface, Cuesta-Valero et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adw9958

Study of the Diurnally Asymmetric Precipitation Trends over Land and Ocean in a Warming Climate, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0762.1

The power of hourly weather data: Observed air temperature climate trends for pragmatic decision-making, McLaurin et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000736

The Record-Breaking 2015/2016 Marine Heatwave in the Southeastern Arabian Sea: Key Drivers and Mechanisms, Liang & Zhan, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023140

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global GNSS climate data record from 5085 stations spanning up to 22 years, Wang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-5951-2025

An optimized network model for sea level height prediction integrating OLSDBO and BiTCN-BiGRU, Wu et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101598

Correct Temporal and Spatial Averaging of Atmospheric and Surface Variables for Weather and Climate Studies, Zeng et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0164.1

Is There Sufficient Information to Reliably Estimate Return Periods for Very Rare Heat Extremes in Event Attribution?, Liang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006073

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Climate change impacts on ocean light in Arctic ecosystems, Kristiansen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-64790-4

Climate Modes evaluation datasets from CMIP6 pre-industrial control simulations and observations, Mohapatra et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-618

Effects of Convection-Permitting Grid Resolution on Cold-Season Precipitation Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model Version 6 Over the Province of Quebec, Canada, Chalifour et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044073

Emulation of the Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions From High- and Low-Income Nations, Polonik et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117841

Future climate assessment in the Mediterranean region using downscaled CMIP6 data, Daher & Kirtman, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1691944

Potential impact of climate change on heatwaves at the urban scale: An evaluation in Valencia, Spain, Fernandez-Garza et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102681

Projection of tropical cyclone genesis under climate change with convolutional mixing neural networks, Hu & Li, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108610

Tropical Pacific Zonal Temperature Gradient Intensified by the Tibetan Plateau Surface Darkening, Tang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117253

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations, Schmidt et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940

Evaluation of Quasi-Equilibrium Criteria for Coupled Climate Model Simulations, de Boer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117040

Review of WRF for weather and climate change over the Tibetan Plateau, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.001

The response of the Southern ocean to Climatological iceberg freshwater forcing, Zhang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-025-07922-2

Cryosphere & climate change

A Comprehensive Database of Thawing Permafrost Locations Across Alaska, Webb et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-557

Mass balance reconstruction of a reference glacier in central Asia during 2000–2023: Integrating simulation and in-situ measurements, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.006

Modelling the impacts of historical and future extreme precipitation days on seasonal surface mass balance in the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland, Loeb et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-5403-2025

Ocean-induced weakening of George VI Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, Zinck et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-5509-2025

Record grounded glacier retreat caused by an ice plain calving process, Ochwat et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01802-4

Sea level & climate change

An optimized network model for sea level height prediction integrating OLSDBO and BiTCN-BiGRU, Wu et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101598

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Accelerated rifting in response to regional climate change in the East African Rift System, Muirhead et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-23264-9

Antarctic ice-shelf collapse in Holocene driven by meltwater release feedbacks, Suganuma et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01829-7

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A mechanistic model of endotherm hibernation applied to the endangered mountain pygmy possum under climate change, Morris et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70238

Adaptive Potential of Intracolonial Genetic Variability in Coral Populations, Afiq?Rosli & Duarte, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72352

Climate driven divergence of growth resilience of Picea crassifolia from semi-arid to semi-humid habitats, Guo et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126428

Discriminating the impact of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on vegetation greening over multiple time scales, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105111

End-of-century Arctic Ocean phytoplankton blooms start a month earlier due to anthropogenic climate change, Payne et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02807-y

Evolution of vegetation phenology research under climate change: a comprehensive bibliometric study, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1688384

Growth of Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb. is benefitting from the recent climate change at the southern Tarim basin, northwest China, Keyimu et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126427

Hybridization mitigates climate change risk in mountainous birds, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02485-w

Influences of Temperature and Time on Habitat Use Patterns of a Semi-Aquatic Turtle, Staggs et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72301

Intra-annual growth dynamics of forest understorey herbaceous plant species in response to global change, Lorer et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70190

Long-Term and Regional-Scale Data Reveal Divergent Trends of Different Climate Variables on Fish Body Size Over 75 Years, Flood et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70584

Marine heatwaves deeply alter marine food web structure and function, Guibourd de Luzinais et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-6583-2025

Phenological Plasticity and Its Temperature-Related Drivers in Common Songbirds Across Europe, Cuchot et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70600

Projected changes to the extent and seasonality of seabird habitat in the California current and implications for marine spatial planning, Gasbarro et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000687

Projected Spatial–Temporal Habitat Patterns of the Lady Amherst's Pheasant (Chrysolophus amherstiae) Under Climate and Land Use Change, Sun et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72457

Rapid Northward Expansion of the Blacklegged Tick, Ixodes scapularis, in Response to Climate Change, Westcott et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70591

Species distribution modelling of benthic amphipod crustaceans in the deep North Atlantic under climate change, Kürzel et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-26442-x

Temporal Changes to Migratory Fuel Load in Migratory Birds Across Europe, Border et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70570

Unpacking climate effects on boreal tree growth: an analysis of tree-ring widths across temperature and soil moisture gradients, Lundgren et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-6427-2025

Warming-driven biotic differentiation of demersal fish across depths in the central mediterranean sea, Quattrocchi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107627

Where to aim with multispecies climate justice? A critical realist account, van Vugt et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2582121

Widespread loss of ecosystem resilience in response of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.005

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Earlier snowmelt increases the strength of the carbon sink in montane meadows unequally across the growing season, Vought et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70195

Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget, Friedlingstein et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5

Forest aboveground biomass in the southwestern U.S. from MISR and GEDI: Assessment with NASA Carbon Monitoring System data, Chopping et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.115117

Global Carbon Budget 2025, Friedlingstein et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-659

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States, Liu et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adx7823

Lateral Dissolved Organic Carbon Losses Represent ∼10% of Upland Tundra Carbon Losses and Include Seasonal Permafrost Contributions, Kelley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009067

Major terrestrial contribution to the dissolved organic carbon budget in the Arctic Ocean, Kong et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01847-5

Revealing the Long-Term Catchment-Scale Carbon Budget Dynamics on the Permafrost-Dominated Eastern Tibetan Plateau, Li et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008743

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Winter Methane Fluxes Over Boreal and Arctic Environments, Mavrovic et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118367

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Evaluating the carbon costs of UK blanket peatland restoration, Brennand et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2574026

Geomechanical stability for hydrate-based CO₂ sequestration in marine sediments: A comprehensive review, Zhang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105254

Substantial Mitigation Potential for Greenhouse Gases Under High Water Levels in a Cultivated Peatland in the Arctic, Zhao et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70599

Aerosols

Evaluating the Contribution of Asian Aerosol Emissions to the North Atlantic Warming Hole, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0285.1

Climate change communications & cognition

Bridging the Gap: Empowering Rural Teachers to Navigate the Complex Terrain of Climate Science Education, Scheer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0061.1

Broadcasting climate change: an international survey on weather communicators' approaches, Molina & Abadal Abadal Abadal, Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-852

Compassion and Climate Change Advocacy: A Computational Analysis of U.S. Environmental NGOs’ Social Media Campaigns, Wu et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2584185

Development and validation of MACK-12: A short multidimensional climate knowledge scale, Labonté & St-Arnaud Champagne St-Arnaud, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000600

From Tangibility to Proximity: How Virtual Reality Encourages Climate-Friendly Food Choices Among Adolescents, van Berlo et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2584171

Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science, Juanchich et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02472-1

Temporal orientations and climate action over time: A two-wave study of the associations between consideration of consequences and climate action intentions and behaviour, Pittaway et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102833

The normalization of (almost) everything: Our minds can get used to anything, and even crises start feeling normal, Dubey, Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.aeb2654

Understanding Mobility Through Climate Risk Perceptions, Hermans & Kizilkaya , WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70029

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Balancing Productivity and Climate Impact: A Framework to Assess Climate-Smart Irrigation, Anand et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006116

Climate Change Adaptation in the Upper East Region of Ghana: Assessing Government Policies in Water Conservation and Dry Season Irrigation Farming, Atubiga et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70023

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Assessing Future Coastal Flood Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern United States, Begmohammadi et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006063

Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide, Graham et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y

Extreme warming of Amazon waters in a changing climate, Santos Fleischmann et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adr4029

Mortality impacts of rainfall and sea-level rise in a developing megacity, Bearpark et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09730-4

Extreme Precipitation Interactions With Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations and Greenhouse Gases in Northern Cyprus, Zaifoglu & Brocca, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70189

Hybrid Glacio-Hydrological Modeling Reveals Contrasting Runoff Changes in Western Patagonia Over the 21st Century, Aguayo et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006442

Intensifying hydroclimatic swings under a warming climate: Disentangling anthropogenic climate change and internal variability in North America, Na et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105171

Nile basin flow regimes under 21^st century climate variability, Elhaddad et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02813-0

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Daily Extreme Precipitation in Turkey, Güler & Erlat, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70048

Climate change economics

A new lever for climate-consistent banking, Kervers, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2575778

Advancing research on financial stability and climate-related financial risk, Pizer & Stock, Science 10.1126/science.aed1008

Climate risk screening tools to enhance access to finance: A global framework piloted by the FAO, Alvar-Beltrán et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100761

Intensifying Extreme Rainfall Will Threaten the Socioeconomic Development of the Yangtze River Basin, Kuang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70062

Climate change and the circular economy

Promoting landfill mining for sustainable resource recovery, circular economy, and climate mitigation: a review, Goh et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1643195

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Citizen Engagement for Social and Technological Innovation in Sustainable Energy Systems, Cristóbal et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500268

Climate policy and green energy technology justice from a whole life-cycle perspective, Gao et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114927

Decarbonizing urban heating systems in Europe: Navigating governance challenges in seven pioneering cities, Kochskämper & Monstadt, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104438

Restoring trust in carbon credits for climate action, Delacote et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000760

Synergistic versus antagonistic effects for carbon reduction policy instruments in China, Guo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.005

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A review of everyday urban adaptations: What they are and how they can advance progress in adaptation, Alda-Vidal & Olazabal Olazabal, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5220045

Ambition and reality in the climate resilience of residential buildings: A case study on flood reconstruction in Austria, Seebauer et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100762

From ballots to readiness: global evidence on democracy’s influence on climate change adaptation readiness, Ko & Leung, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2583746

Supporting climate resilient development planning − a dynamic adaptive pathways based approach and an illustrative case from Cork City, Ireland, Langendijk et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103070

Users’ awareness and expectations from the climate change adaptation digital twin, Terrado et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104236

Climate change impacts on human health

Changes in wildfire season in Alaska and the consequences for ambient fine PM in recent decades, Gaw et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105076

Estimating the climate change-driven global distribution of Fusarium proliferatum and mycotoxin risk assessment under future warming scenarios, Tagyan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1673494

Heat stress dichotomy: long-term adaptation and acute shock in London domestic environments, Sun et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0567

Implementing Indigenous rights through climate–health governance: advancing the Indigenous Determinants of Health framework within the UNFCCC, Roth et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1697881

Mortality impacts of rainfall and sea-level rise in a developing megacity, Bearpark et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09730-4

Rapid Northward Expansion of the Blacklegged Tick, Ixodes scapularis, in Response to Climate Change, Westcott et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70591

Climate change & geopolitics

Green superpowers: China, the European Union, and the United States in the global energy transition, Bouckaert, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2585657

Is the sun the new battleground? Investigating the future of energy conflicts over solar power, AlQershi & Thurasamy, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104414

Climate change impacts on human culture

Women unprepared for an unknown fate: the quadruple burden of climate change — disasters, dowry, domestic violence, and divorce, Atiqul Haq et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101589

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate change, health, and decent work: a call for combined action, Jackson & Wright, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1655196

COP meetings must evolve to turn climate promises into action, Garcia-Soto, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03682-5

Don’t despair, collective action can address climate change, Jakob, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03634-z

Editorial: Addressing climate change in agriculture and natural resources with a focus on adaptation and extreme events, Jha et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1722615

Editorial: Climate-environment resiliency and adaptation, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1731968

For real climate action, empower women, Kay, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03630-3

Official statistics are vastly undercounting deaths from extreme weather, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03669-2

Plastics disposal as a climate decision, Macreadie & Adyel, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01682-x

The human right to a safe climate, Oluborode Jegede, Human Rights and the Environment under African Union Law Open Access 10.1007/978-3-030-46523-0_3

Time to act across crises: Lessons from the Nexus Assessment for UNFCCC COP 30, McElwee & Harrison, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000730

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Low hanging fruit for Washington’s energy future? Agrivoltaic feasibility for agricultural and energy resilience in the Evergreen State, Lambert et al., Washington Department of Commerce

The authors assess the feasibility of agrivoltaics—the practice of intentionally integrating agriculture and solar energy—in Washington State from a technical and social perspective using a multi-pronged approach. The authors provide an overview of research to-date on agrivoltaics, interpreting that research in the Washington context. They also map Washington’s agricultural lands to understand the suitability for agrivoltaics and presents a modeling approach that merges property-level solar array design with crop growth to assess agrivoltaic systems design.

Off target. Continued collective inaction puts global temperature goal at risk, United Nations Environment Programme

The authors found that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C. Reductions to annual emissions of 35 per cent and 55 per cent, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade. The report finds that this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize climate risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 within the realms of possibility – although doing so will be extremely challenging.

Dodging The Firm Fixation For Data Centers And The Grid, Eric Gimon, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

Fast-rising electricity demand spurred by AI data centers is upending the power system. But many utilities and grid planners are relying on an outdated “firm fixation” of fossil fuel-based generation failing to meet the moment– this risks higher costs and power shortages instead of a chance to remake the grid in a smarter, cleaner, more flexible way. In reality, data center power requirements are far more complex than the flat, 24/7 block they are often assumed to be. For instance nuclear power is not always a great match for the kind of power data centers need. One-to-one matching of data centers with dedicated or “captive” firm power plants is particularly unwise for both the power generator and the new data centers. Relying on diesel backup risks multiple local environmental concerns. Clean energy and innovative tactics like “energy parks” can satisfy data center electricity demand without resorting to a rush to build new gas or keep old coal online. Additionally, the interconnection process where data centers are connected to the grid is the maximum point of leverage for policymakers to ensure their power demand is met reliably, cleanly, and affordably.

Integration of Innovative Construction Materials, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Energy, Installations, and Environment

The authors discuss efforts to incorporate innovative materials and advanced construction techniques into criteria and specifications (i.e., Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC) and Unified Facilities Guide Specifications (UFGS)) used in military construction projects. This includes the use of materials that contain increasing amount of sustainability properties that meet the requirements of laws, regulations, policies, and industry standards. The authors also discusses efforts to integrate innovative building materials into its designs, current examples of this in sustainable materials pilot projects, Research and Development (R&D), and resources needed to accomplish these efforts.

The Growth Story of the 21st Century. The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action, Nicolas Stern, LSE Press

The world stands at a crossroads. The next decade will determine whether we avoid climate, biodiversity, and economic catastrophe – or unlock a new era of sustainable, resilient, and inclusive growth. The author challenges the outdated idea that we must choose between climate action and development. Instead, he presents a compelling case for a transformation that delivers both prosperity and a healthier planet. Drawing on economics, finance, policy, politics, and behavioral science, the author explores why this transformation is essential, what it entails, and how we can achieve it. He revisits the insights of the Stern Review two decades on and sets out a new research agenda for economics and the social sciences.

Climate Impacts of Japan ’ s Public Finance, Daniel Greenford, Friends of the Earth Japan

The author quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation’s (JBIC) financing of overseas fossil fuel projects. The author presents a project-by-project accounting of the greenhouse gases driven by JBIC’s fossil-fuel financing, testing JBIC’s trajectory against a 1.5°C pathway. The author exposes JBIC’s financed emissions as vast—comparable to some of the world’s largest emitting countries.

Japanese LNG Trading. A Data-Driven Portrait of A State-Enabled LNG Resale System, Data Desk, Friends of the Earth Japan

The authors discuss every LNG cargo handled by Japanese companies and quantifies resale flows for 32 companies from 2020–2024, identifying major destination countries and overall resale volumes.

Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa, testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba, Clarke et al., World Weather Attribution

Hurricane Melissa moved very slowly across the Caribbean, allowing the storm to gather immense destructive energy over very warm ocean waters. When it finally made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, the storm hit a region familiar with hurricanes, but unaccustomed to one of such exceptional strength and intensity. To estimate if human-induced climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, the authors first determined if there is a trend in the observations. In Jamaica, they found that heavy 5-day rainfall events such as the one associated with Melissa are about 30% more intense and about twice as likely in today’s climate, that is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human-induced climate change. In Eastern Cuba the observations show an even stronger increase of about 50% in intensity and a factor 9 in frequency. Taking all lines of evidence together, including the observations, the IRIS analysis, other studies in the region, and physical reasoning, that in a warming climate an increase in heavy rainfall is expected, the authors estimate an increase in intensity of the rainfall associated with hurricanes like Melissa to be larger than 9%.

Powering the Fight Lessons from the Grid at War, Emanuel et al., Converge Strategies

The U.S. military’s relationship with the power grid has evolved considerably during the past century. The U.S. government stepped up to work with industry in World War I and World War II to overcome energy shortages that threatened the war effort. The experiences with power system planning and buildout from these conflicts are relevant today in peacetime. The power grid is vital to a globally-networked U.S. military. If the U.S. had to fight a major war today, the power grid would immediately be tapped to deliver uninterrupted electricity for critical missions at domestic military installations, while simultaneously supporting wartime manufacturing. The U.S. is currently experiencing unprecedented growth in civilian power demand, which is already testing the limits of the grid. Drawing on lessons from last century’s major wars, the authors identify a path forward for policymakers, defense leaders, utilities, and grid operators to strengthen the power grid.

2025 Ecolab Watermark Study, Ecolab

The study is an annual report that measures the state of water stewardship through its importance, use, responsibility and connection to global trends, such as artificial intelligence, smart water management and extreme weather events, among key consumer populations around the world. The study is a vital roadmap for businesses, governments and non-profits to align water strategies with public expectations. By understanding public perspectives, collective, informed decisions can be made on how to safeguard water while supporting a more prosperous future for organizations and individuals alike.

Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future, Zhang et al., World Bank Group

The world is losing 324 billion cubic meters of freshwater every year, enough to meet the needs of 280 million people annually. These losses are driven by worsening droughts and unsustainable land and water practices, including poor pricing policies, weak coordination, deforestation, wetland degradation, and excessive irrigation. The authors provide the most detailed picture yet of global freshwater decline, and offer a roadmap for reversing the trend through smarter policy and investment.

2025 Integrated Transmission Planning Assessment Report, Southwest Power Pool Engineering, Southwest Power Pool

Each year, Southwest Power Pool (SPP) conducts an Integrated Transmission Planning (ITP) study — a detailed, forward-looking plan to strengthen the regional electric grid. The goal is to ensure homes and businesses have reliable and affordable power. This critical process is completed in accordance with federally required and enforceable reliability standards and is shaped by input from many stakeholders. The ITP pinpoints where new transmission lines are needed to support growing demand, strengthen reliability and enhance resilience to extreme weather — all while maintaining cost discipline and enabling a more flexible, balanced mix of energy resources. SPP and its members developed a comprehensive $18 billion portfolio of transmission projects identified through study. From that, $8.6 billion in projects were approved to move forward in this year’s plan and will be authorized for construction. The 2025 ITP is grounded in collaboration and transparency, evaluating how well the grid can withstand and recover from a wide range of stresses — from extreme weather to rapid load growth and shifting energy patterns. It reflects SPP’s commitment to building a dependable, resilient and affordable power system.

Australian Carbon Dioxide Removal Roadmap, Grant et al., Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

The authors detail the potential for a novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) industry that could help the nation, and the rest of the world, reach net zero. The roadmap outlines the capabilities and potential of novel CDR in Australia and aims to complement Australian emission reduction approaches and existing conventional (or nature-based) CDR approaches that are already contributing to Australia’s progress on climate change. These novel CDR approaches have the potential to remove large volumes of CO2 and offer the potential for scalable and durable storage over centuries to millennia, but are still emerging and not yet at the scale needed. The authors provide the roadmap for use as a framework for government, industry, researchers, and communities to foster the responsible development of a new CDR industry and provides quantitative analysis for the following approaches direct air capture and storage, biomass carbon removal and storage, ocean alkalinity enhancement, and enhanced rock weathering.

No Escape II: The Way Forward. Bringing climate solutions to the frontlines of conflict and displacement, Birner et al., United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Three in every four refugees and other displaced people fleeing war and persecution now live in countries that are highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. These communities face an impossible reality – they are being hit harder by more devastating floods, longer droughts and periods of extreme heat, without the means to adapt, recover and rebuild. But while the challenges are immense, meaningful solutions are at hand. The authors show that an evidence-based, whole-of-society approach that allows all to participate and leaves no one behind is both possible and essential. By aligning climate, humanitarian, and development action, and – critically – ensuring accessible and inclusive finance, frontline communities can be helped to withstand today’s shocks and share in a resilient future. Here, the engagement of the private sector is also vital – from the start, and into the future – bridging innovation, investment and inclusive solutions for resilience and adaptation.

State of the Cryosphere 2025 Ice Loss = Global Damage, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Current unambitious climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, spell disaster for billions of people from global ice loss, but that damage can still be prevented, according to the authors. The authors note that thresholds likely at just 1°C of warming for the stability of the polar ice sheets and even lower temperatures for many glaciers. The authors also note however that the most proactive climate pathways, also released today, can bring down temperatures below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C next century – but only if reductions begin immediately.

Protecting people, shaping policy: Physiology and partnerships at the heart of climate and health, The Physiological Society

The Physiological Society convened the Global Climate and Health Summit in July 2025 to bring together global experts to map where physiology can drive faster, fairer climate action. Four priorities emerged to guide the post-Summit Roadmap for Action including engaging people – strengthening climate–health literacy and communication; Scaling action – accelerating investment and innovation in proven, physiology-informed solutions; Delivering accountability– translating physiological evidence into legal and policy enforcement; and Defining boundaries – embedding physiological evidence in planning and finance to protect people and guide realistic adaptation.

The Social Cost of Plastic to the United States, Lauer et al., Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University

Plastic products are everywhere in daily life in the United States. Yet the economic, environmental and health costs of plastic to society reach up to $1.1 trillion per year—and that’s likely an underestimate. The author provide the most comprehensive analysis to date of the documented economic costs of plastic to the United States. They found that the annual social cost of plastic is estimated to be $436 billion to $1.109 trillion per year. This figure is a conservative estimate and reflects both the limited availability of cost estimates as of July 2025 across the entire plastics life cycle—from fossil fuel extraction and production to use, disposal, and mismanagement—and the uncertainty embedded in the studies that informed this analysis. Notably, the authors identified critical data gaps for costs related to human health impacts, loss of terrestrial ecosystem services, cost of recycling and incinerating plastic waste, and lowered property values. Filling these data gaps will bring us closer to quantifying the true social cost of plastic to the United States.

Climate Change, Human Mobility and Security, Kheira Tarif, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The author explores the connected challenges of climate change, human mobility and security, highlighting how fragmented policies and misconceptions—such as the myth of mass climate migration—hinder effective responses. The author found that urban migration can support adaptation, but also strain urban conditions, involuntary immobility can heighten people’s vulnerabilities, and poorly designed climate action can lead to displacement, inequality or unrest. These dynamics show that governance determines the security outcomes of human mobility. To address this, the author calls for safe, rights-based migration that facilitates climate adaptation; support for the most vulnerable, immobile populations; and people-led, democratic climate action.

Climate Change and Energy in the Indonesian Mind, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Indonesia is home to approximately 285 million people – the fourth most populous country in the world – and has been ranked as one of the top ten emitters of greenhouse gases. More than half of the country’s emissions come from land use, particularly from deforestation and the clearance of carbon-rich peatlands for agriculture development – often for oil palm plantations. Another major source of Indonesia’s emissions is the energy sector’s use of fossil fuels – representing about one-quarter of the country’s total emissions. Indonesia is also highly exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A large majority of Indonesians (86%) say climate change is happening. 83% of people in Indonesia are worried about climate change, including one-third (33%) who are “very worried.” 83% favor the Indonesian government’s commitment to reduce Indonesia’s carbon pollution to nearly zero by 2060.

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