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India waits for clear US signals on how Russian oil curbs will play out

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With fears of secondary sanctions looming, India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to come down gradually, a shift that could push New Delhi to source more energy from the US as well. Sources believe this diversification would help offset tariff pressures and strengthen the foundation for an energy-focused component in the trade pact.

While Nayara Energy maintains a term contract for Russian crude, most of India’s Russian oil purchases are spot deals. Sources noted that while sufficient alternative supply exists, Russia remains a key partner. They added that Washington is unlikely to push sanctions to the point of triggering a price surge, given the potential impact on global markets, particularly on supplies to China and India.

Crude prices rallied sharply on Friday, with Brent at $66.42, after Washington sanctioned Rosneft, Lukoil, and Sovcomflot, removing nearly 4.5 million barrels per day from global markets. On October 23, Trump announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, giving companies until November 21 to wind down transactions. Earlier, on October 9, Washington imposed sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil company NIS, one of Russia’s last remaining energy assets in Europe.

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