In the first half of this year 2025 (January-June 2025) the world has shown highly worrying drift towards increasing dangers.

Although recently the Iran-Israel ceasefire provided some relief and subsequently there has been a limited peace initiative for settling the increasing conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo too, on the whole the situation in the year 2025 so far has been characterized by too many high-risk flash points including the continuing attacks on the people of Gaza, the Israel-Iran 12-day war, the US bombing of Iran, the short but serious clash between India and Pakistan, the worsening in some respects of the civil war in Sudan and the continuing tendency of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to present many high-risk situations that can widen the conflict. In fact the situation of high-risk flashpoints aggravated further with a highly escalatory attack in the Ukraine-Russia war on June 1.    

Even the ceasefire between Iran and Israel has not been achieved in a way that resolves the differences or creates any goodwill. Most of the existing crisis situations have not shown any signs of getting resolved while new ones have also appeared.

The only positive achievement is that the relations between the two biggest nuclear weapon powers, the USA and Russia, are at least better than these were under the Biden administration, when these had got too close to direct confrontation on more than one occasion. On the other hand, US-China relations have not improved in any significant or stable way and still there is frequent mention of the possibility of a US-China war in the near future.

The situation has not improved and may have worsened further in Gaza as there have been several attacks recently even on people seeking humanitarian aid, resulting in several highly tragic deaths.

In Ukraine, hopes of very early end of war held out earlier by the US President Trump have been dashed, and now there is increasing uncertainty regarding peace prospects amidst continuing war. Whatever chances that had remained of the war ending on a note of goodwill and permanent peace have also decreased further very sharply. Relations of most European countries with Russia have also not improved, despite new opportunities emerging for this. 

New tensions have also emerged due to the USA’s hostile statements towards leading neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as towards smaller ones like Panama.

Greenland faces increasing prospects of being taken over to various extents by the USA, while the entire Arctic region also faces higher chances of big-power rivalries and increased chances of them clashing over control of vast untapped resources and emerging trade routes, following melting of ice, with this race and rivalry also leading to increasing ecological havoc in the region.

In Sudan, the very violent civil war continues to cause widespread distress, and with civil war possibilities re-appearing in South Sudan too, the merger of these conflicts can worsen the situation further, particularly with wealthy foreign countries supporting rival sides, increasing the possibility of more destructive weapons becoming available. A recent (June) report of the UN’s fact finding committee has pointed out the highly worrying situation in many parts of Sudan.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, this year initially saw the escalation of violence linked to rebel groups aided by neighboring countries, and there may have been further complicating factors linked to more powerful distant countries with their sight on vast mineral resources. However more recently there has been some improvement in peace prospects here, as pointed out earlier, but these peace prospects still remain quite uncertain.  

In fact, here as well as in some other places, efforts of powerful forces to gain control over minerals, oil, gas, farmland and other resources of distant lands, as well as the willingness to use violence for this, has become more brazen. It is by now well-established that there are also highly corrupt persons, in the military- industrial complex and among powerful decision makers who benefit personally from wars and conflicts and the arms sales and contracts related to these. 

These powerful persons and forces as well as wider tendencies for dominance have together created a situation in which wars, proxy wars and conflicts become more likely. In a world where increasingly destructive weapons are available, this can lead to very large-scale destruction of life. In addition these wars and conflicts make it impossible to secure the cooperation of various nations and people for the most urgent task of protecting environment. 

What is more, wars, war preparations and arms race are themselves emerging as the biggest polluters.

Hence these increasing wars and conflicts are also worsening the already serious threats to the basic life-nurturing conditions of earth.

Hence a much, much higher commitment to peace at world level is needed. More systemic reforms are needed, and many more people guided by the most experienced and honest scholars, diplomats and peace activists must devote more and more of their time and efforts for this, with the UNO also playing a more sincere and bigger role, to create the essential conditions for improving peace, safety and justice in our deeply troubled and badly threatened world. If during the remaining half of the year important peace initiatives can be taken, we can still end the year on a note of hope. 

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Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, A Day in 2071 and Man over Machine. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

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